Regardless of what kind of legislation results from the torrid healthcare battle being waged on Capitol Hill, one notable outcome of the process has been a shift in our awareness of the obesity epidemic that has engulfed the U.S. in the last two decades.

Whether heightened awareness translates into behavior change sufficient to reverse the trend will depend on our ability to understand the complex causal relationships driving this shared crisis. Our chances of achieving that kind of behavior-changing understanding got a little better last month with the publication of Thinking in Circles About Obesity, by system dynamicist Tarek Hamid of the Naval Postgraduate School.

Engaging and thorough, Hamid suggests that the solutions to the obesity epidemic need to be as nuanced as the problem, entailing "a whole lot more than food-pyramid images or a new nutritional guideline." The systems thinking perspective he offers highlights the fatal flaws in our commonly held assumptions about energy balance--the dynamic equation between the calories we consume and the energy we expend--and provides practical leverage points for breaking the vicious cycles that are fueling the crisis.

There is no shortage of data documenting the dimensions of the problem. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), over a 20-year period, obesity in American adults has increased by 60%, and obesity in children has tripled. With two-thirds of U.S. adults officially overweight (measured in body mass index, or BMI)--and 30% of those obese--rampant weight gain has emerged as the major healthcare crisis of the day, contributing to many lethal conditions including cardiovascular disease, certain types of cancer, and type 2 diabetes. In a study published earlier this year in the journal Health Affairs, it was estimated that over the last 10 years, the annual medical costs associated with obesity in this country have ballooned from about $78 billion a year to around $147 billion.

As Hamid documents in Thinking in Circles, the environmental, physiological, and behavioral causes that have spiraled out of control in such a short time are many and complex. Some obvious factors often cited in the popular media, such as decreased activity levels and increased consumption of high-fructose corn syrup, offer a variety of possible intervention points. But the highest leverage actions will be focused at the structural level, on prevention rather than remediation, as reflected in the CDC's recommendations for policy-level prevention strategies.

This is where Hamid's work is most insightful, emphasizing the importance of underlying mental models and informed choice in managing our health before problems arise--especially in the formulation of childhood nutrition practices. Pointing to studies that show encouraging results from early intervention, Hamid notes, "targeting children allows us to intervene before obesity-promoting behaviors have become well ingrained."

Our 2010 conference theme, Systems Thinking in Action: Fueling New Cycles of Success, reflects our belief that while 20 years of convening innovative learning communities and delivering groundbreaking content is a gratifying record of success, we're still just at the starting line. For Pegasus and the thousands of leaders and change agents who have co-created the conference over the years, the conditions have never been riper for applying systems thinking to the complex challenges of organizational and community life.

This year, we'll focus on bringing you the tools and ideas you need to identify leverage points for setting new virtuous cycles in motion. We'll help you understand how the interconnectedness of the systems you're part of are shaping your results. We'll explore with you how new investments in learning, knowledge creation, and courageous conversation not only may improve your bottom line, but may even shift the way you think about success. Join keynote presenters Daniel H. Kim and Peter Senge to start your own new cycles of success by putting systems thinking into action.

A call for proposals will be published in January. Stay tuned for more program details as they become available.

When you register before December 31, you save $700 off the full conference rate. Even lower rates are available for teams of four or more. Call 1-781-398-9700 for more information.